Premium
The Wisdom of Crowds: Learning from Administrators’ Predictions of Citizen Perceptions
Author(s) -
Poister Theodore H.,
Thomas John Clayton
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
public administration review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.721
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1540-6210
pISSN - 0033-3352
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6210.2007.00713.x
Subject(s) - crowds , agency (philosophy) , public opinion , public relations , value (mathematics) , perception , survey data collection , political science , sociology , psychology , politics , social science , computer science , statistics , computer security , mathematics , machine learning , neuroscience , law
Public agencies use surveys to solicit feedback from citizens and targeted customer groups, but many experts question whether the results of these surveys are valuable. This paper explores how a recent innovation in citizen surveys—asking public administrators to predict how citizens will respond to survey questions—may be used to increase that value and, at the same time, provide additional data of interest on its own account. The innovation is explored through two surveys: (1) a public opinion poll of Georgia residents conducted by the authors for the Georgia Department of Transportation in January 2004, and (2) a brief survey of that agency’s administrators asking for their predictions of public opinion. The prediction process appeared to increase the agency’s interest in the resident survey. The findings document the frequent superiority of groups—what Surowiecki terms “the wisdom of crowds”—over individuals in predicting public opinion.