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Selecting a Portfolio of Technologies: An Application of Decision Analysis
Author(s) -
Jackson Jack A.,
Kloeber Jack M.,
Ralston Brian E.,
Deckro Richard F.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1999.tb01607.x
Subject(s) - decision analysis , portfolio , computer science , operations research , decision support system , risk analysis (engineering) , modern portfolio theory , time horizon , decision model , management science , mathematical optimization , economics , engineering , mathematics , data mining , business , machine learning , mathematical economics , financial economics
The Department of Energy is faced with the critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focuses on developing a decision support tool which assists the decision maker to find an optimal portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting a technology for each process so that the decision maker's objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives are risk, life‐cycle cost, and time required for remediation. The model uses exponential attribute utility functions with an additive objective function. The model provides the decision maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and their associated utility. Cumulative frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance in the results. The model permits sensitivity analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better informed decisions and may be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the remediation process.