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The Use of Stochastic Simulation in Knowledge‐Based Systems
Author(s) -
Raghunathan Srinivasan,
Tadikamalla Pandu
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1992.tb00452.x
Subject(s) - computer science , knowledge base , domain knowledge , construct (python library) , knowledge based systems , process (computing) , variety (cybernetics) , domain (mathematical analysis) , machine learning , artificial intelligence , industrial engineering , mathematics , mathematical analysis , engineering , programming language , operating system
Knowledge‐based systems support the decision‐making process with the help of domain specific knowledge bases. The knowledge bases almost always have uncertainty associated with them. A variety of approaches have been proposed in the artificial intelligence (AI) literature for the construction of and reasoning with uncertain knowledge bases. Building on this stream of research, we focus on how stochastic simulation can be used to construct and reason with knowledge bases that have uncertainties. An advantage of the simulation methodology is that it may not have to make many of the assumptions made by other approaches. It also allows the designer of the knowledge‐based system to control the methodology based on accuracy and time requirements. The simulation approach to knowledge base construction is a modified version of the concept induction procedure used in AI. However, it incorporates, as does simulation modeling, statistical tests to identify the best rule that describes the relationship among the variables. We show that when simulation is used to reason with uncertain knowledge bases, under certain conditions, the number of simulation trials needed to achieve a given level of accuracy is independent of the characteristics, such as the size, of the knowledge base. Empirical results obtained from an experiment confirm our theoretical results and provide evidence that simulation methodology is practical for real life knowledge‐based systems.