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THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RELATIVE ACCURACY OF PROBABILISTIC VS. DETERMINISTIC PREDICTIONS AND THE LEVEL OF PREDICTION‐TASK DIFFICULTY *
Author(s) -
Eckel Norm
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01517.x
Subject(s) - converse , probabilistic logic , task (project management) , computer science , statistical model , machine learning , artificial intelligence , mathematics , management , economics , geometry
An experimental paradigm was constructed to assess the impact of prediction‐task difficulty on the relative accuracy of probabilistic versus deterministic predictions. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the accuracy of probabilistic versus deterministic predictions is related to the level of difficulty inherent in the prediction task. At low levels of prediction‐task difficulty, deterministic predictions were mort accurate than probabilistic predictions; the converse was true at high levels of difficulty.