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TALKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES: A LOGICAL PROBLEM FOR OR/MS
Author(s) -
Singer Alan,
Davies John,
Huang Ming S.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1984.tb01237.x
Subject(s) - statement (logic) , interpretation (philosophy) , inference , confusion , computer science , convention , logical consequence , problem statement , mathematical economics , natural language processing , epistemology , artificial intelligence , mathematics , programming language , psychology , philosophy , law , management science , economics , political science , psychoanalysis
The correct interpretation of a natural language statement is determined as much by convention and shared meanings as by logical content. Therefore, when the word “probability” is used in the statement of a decision problem, the intended interpretation is not always clear. If such a statement also contains explicit probability formulae, confusion and even paradox may result. In this article, a problem involving cascaded inference is interpreted in four ways, three of which are regarded by the authors as legitimate or reasonable. The problem was originally suggested by Einhorn [3] and further discussed by Libby [10]. It is suggested here that a formal, mathematicist interpretation of the word “probability” might lead to inappropriate analyses of some decisions.