Premium
USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING *
Author(s) -
Farley John U.,
Tapiero Charles S.
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1981.tb00096.x
Subject(s) - forgetting , probabilistic logic , computer science , advertising , order (exchange) , lag , econometrics , business , economics , artificial intelligence , psychology , computer network , finance , cognitive psychology
Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail‐order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.