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METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND MULTI‐ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES * †
Author(s) -
Huber George P.
Publication year - 1974
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00630.x
Subject(s) - outcome (game theory) , normative , computer science , aggregate (composite) , scale (ratio) , range (aeronautics) , econometrics , mathematics , mathematical economics , composite material , philosophy , materials science , physics , epistemology , quantum mechanics
In many situations where normative decision‐aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi‐attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers. This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi‐attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments.