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A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ASSESSORS
Author(s) -
Pickhardt Robert C.,
Wallace John B.
Publication year - 1974
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00621.x
Subject(s) - computer science , task (project management) , probability distribution , value (mathematics) , key (lock) , econometrics , statistics , machine learning , mathematics , economics , management , computer security
Despite the key role that subjective probabilities play in decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, little is known about the ability of probability assessors in developing these estimates. A literature survey is followed by a review of results from a continuing series of experiments designed to investigate the external accuracy of subjectively assessed probability distributions. Initial findings confirm that probability assessments provided by untrained assessors are of questionable value in predicting the distribution of actual outcomes of uncertain events. Particular difficulty is encountered when subjects attempt to quantify the extremes of their subjective distributions. The impact of extended assessor training and hypotheses regarding the effects of variation in the assessor's information level and the complexity of the assessment task are explored. Implications for applied decision making are drawn, and directions for future investigations are suggested.