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SOME DATA BASED MODELS FOR ANALYZING SALES FLUCTUATIONS
Author(s) -
MORRISON DONALD,
PERRY AR
Publication year - 1970
Publication title -
decision sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.238
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1540-5915
pISSN - 0011-7315
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5915.1970.tb00783.x
Subject(s) - computer science , inference , econometrics , bayesian probability , bayesian inference , volume (thermodynamics) , panel data , population , operations research , data mining , economics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , physics , demography , quantum mechanics , sociology
The models developed in this paper can be used to study period to period fluctuations in sales. They allow for a heterogenious population of consumers; that is, frequent and infrequent buyers and for one package and multiple package buyers. The data needed for the models are readily available from many sources, particularly consumer panel data. Methods for estimating parameters and detailed numerical examples are given. These models allow a manager to answer the following question: “Which type(s) of consumer is most responsible for the fluctuations in my total sales volume.” Some new results in Bayesian inference are also developed.