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Change over Tenure: Voting, Variance, and Decision Making on the U.S. Courts of Appeals
Author(s) -
Kaheny Erin B.,
Haire Susan Brodie,
Benesh Sara C.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
american journal of political science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.347
H-Index - 170
eISSN - 1540-5907
pISSN - 0092-5853
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00325.x
Subject(s) - voting , variance (accounting) , consistency (knowledge bases) , context (archaeology) , scholarship , ranked voting system , political science , economics , econometrics , social psychology , psychology , law , computer science , accounting , politics , paleontology , artificial intelligence , biology
Existing scholarship on the voting behavior of U.S. Courts of Appeals judges finds that their decisions are best understood as a function of law, policy preferences, and factors relating to the institutional context of the circuit court. What previous studies have failed to consider, however, is that the ability to predict circuit judge decisions can vary in substantively important ways and that judges, in different stages of their careers, may behave distinctively. This article develops a theoretical framework which conceptualizes career stage to account for variability in voting by circuit judges and tests hypotheses by modeling the error variance in a vote choice model. The findings indicate that judges are more predictable in their voting during their early and late career stages. Case characteristics and institutional features of the circuit also affect voting consistency.