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The Turnover Trap: New Leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict
Author(s) -
Wolford Scott
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
american journal of political science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.347
H-Index - 170
eISSN - 1540-5907
pISSN - 0092-5853
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00280.x
Subject(s) - reputation , shadow (psychology) , international conflict , political science , state (computer science) , trap (plumbing) , public relations , social psychology , economics , psychology , computer science , law , politics , engineering , algorithm , environmental engineering , psychotherapist
A formal model of crisis bargaining in the shadow of leadership turnover is analyzed where (1) successive leaders of the same state may differ in their resolve, (2) their resolve is private information, and (3) the probability of leadership turnover depends on bargaining behavior and conflict outcomes. The model provides novel answers to a number of questions about the relationship between an incumbent's time in office, the prospects of losing office, the anticipated behavior of future leaders, and the current probability of conflict. Taken together, these results add further weight to recent claims that leaders, not states, should be considered the fundamental units of analysis in international relations.