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Revenue Cyclicality and Changes in Income and Policy
Author(s) -
M LESLIE,
MATTOON RICHARD
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
public budgeting and finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.694
H-Index - 30
eISSN - 1540-5850
pISSN - 0275-1100
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-5850.2012.01026.x
Subject(s) - recession , business cycle , revenue , economics , state (computer science) , fiscal policy , monetary economics , government revenue , government (linguistics) , investment (military) , economic policy , business , finance , macroeconomics , linguistics , philosophy , algorithm , politics , computer science , law , political science
The past two recessions have proved alarming to state government finances. In 2001, a relatively shallow national recession led to a severe downturn in state revenues that took three years to unwind. In the wake of the recent economic downturn, signs of fiscal stress are readily apparent. In this paper, we investigate whether the revenue patterns surrounding these two recessions are the result of state government revenues having grown more sensitive to economic conditions. We find that the responsiveness of revenues to measures of business cycle conditions has grown since the 1990s. We use data on state government revenues, state‐specific information on economic conditions, and measures of state policy to examine fiscal performance and budgeting practice over the economic cycle. Our findings suggest that increasing income cyclicality, in particular of investment income, has made state revenues more responsive to the business cycle since the mid‐1990s. We also find that changes in policy making have served to increase revenue cyclicality.