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Valuation of Catastrophe Equity Puts With Markov‐Modulated Poisson Processes
Author(s) -
Chang ChiaChien,
Lin ShihKuei,
Yu MinTeh
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of risk and insurance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.055
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1539-6975
pISSN - 0022-4367
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2010.01385.x
Subject(s) - valuation (finance) , equity (law) , poisson distribution , actuarial science , econometrics , financial economics , economics , business , mathematics , finance , statistics , political science , law
We derive the pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (CatEPuts) by assuming catastrophic events follow a Markov Modulated Poisson process (MMPP) whose intensity varies according to the change of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) signal. U.S. hurricanes events from 1960 to 2007 show that the CatEPuts pricing errors under the MMPP(2) are smaller than the PP by 30 percent to 66 percent. The scenario analysis indicates that the MMPP outperforms the exponential growth pattern (EG) if the hurricane intensity is the AMO signal, whereas the EG may outperform the MMPP if the future climate is warming rapidly.