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A Systems Approach to the Policy‐Level Risk Assessment of Exotic Animal Diseases: Network Model and Application to Classical Swine Fever
Author(s) -
Delgado João,
Pollard Simon,
Snary Emma,
Black Edgar,
Prpich George,
Longhurst Phil
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01934.x
Subject(s) - classical swine fever , risk analysis (engineering) , animal health , disease , environmental health , biosecurity , intervention (counseling) , risk assessment , business , computer science , computer security , virology , medicine , virus , biology , veterinary medicine , ecology , pathology , psychiatry
Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy‐level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.