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Flood Protection Diversification to Reduce Probabilities of Extreme Losses
Author(s) -
Zhou Qian,
Lambert James H.,
Karvetski Christopher W.,
Keisler Jeffrey M.,
Linkov Igor
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01870.x
Subject(s) - flood myth , diversification (marketing strategy) , environmental science , risk analysis (engineering) , climate change , dike , environmental resource management , business , geography , geology , oceanography , archaeology , geochemistry , marketing
Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large‐scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy.