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Fooled by Local Robustness
Author(s) -
Sniedovich Moshe
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01772.x
Subject(s) - robustness (evolution) , randomness , uncertainty analysis , uncertainty quantification , proposition , econometrics , sensitivity analysis , computer science , mathematics , mathematical economics , statistics , biochemistry , chemistry , philosophy , epistemology , gene
One would have expected the considerable public debate created by Nassim Taleb’s two best selling books on uncertainty, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan , to inspire greater caution to the fundamental difficulties posed by severe uncertainty . Yet, methodologies exhibiting an incautious approach to uncertainty have been proposed recently in a range of publications. So, the objective of this short note is to call attention to a prime example of an incautious approach to severe uncertainty that is manifested in the proposition to use the concept radius of stability as a measure of robustness against severe uncertainty. The central proposition of this approach, which is exemplified in info‐gap decision theory , is this: use a simple radius of stability model to analyze and manage a severe uncertainty that is characterized by a vast uncertainty space, a poor point estimate, and a likelihood‐free quantification of uncertainty. This short discussion serves then as a reminder that the generic radius of stability model is a model of local robustness. It is, therefore, utterly unsuitable for the treatment of severe uncertainty when the latter is characterized by a poor estimate of the parameter of interest, a vast uncertainty space, and a likelihood‐free quantification of uncertainty.

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