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Modeling Intelligent Adversaries for Terrorism Risk Assessment: Some Necessary Conditions for Adversary Models
Author(s) -
Guikema Seth
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01737.x
Subject(s) - adversary , computer science , set (abstract data type) , perspective (graphical) , adversary model , threat model , range (aeronautics) , risk analysis (engineering) , computer security , management science , artificial intelligence , engineering , medicine , programming language , aerospace engineering
Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often‐implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This “Perspective” paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis.