Premium
Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks
Author(s) -
Ćirković Milan M.,
Sandberg Anders,
Bostrom Nick
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01460.x
Subject(s) - anthropic principle , extinction (optical mineralogy) , shadow (psychology) , selection (genetic algorithm) , computer science , physics , geology , psychology , theoretical physics , paleontology , artificial intelligence , psychotherapist
We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma‐ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work.