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Ignorance Is Not Probability
Author(s) -
Huber William A.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01361.x
Subject(s) - ignorance , exposition (narrative) , criticism , risk analysis (engineering) , point (geometry) , risk assessment , epistemology , computer science , management science , mathematics , engineering , philosophy , medicine , computer security , law , political science , art , geometry , literature
The distinction between ignorance about a parameter and knowing only a probability distribution for that parameter is of fundamental importance in risk assessment. Brief dialogs between a hypothetical decisionmaker and a risk assessor illustrate this point, showing that the distinction has real consequences. These dialogs are followed by a short exposition that places risk analysis in a decision‐theoretic framework, describes the important elements of that framework, and uses these to shed light on Terje Aven's criticism of nonprobabilistic purely “objective” methods. Suggestions are offered concerning a more effective approach to evaluating those methods.