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Probability of Exporting Infected Carcasses from Vaccinated Pigs Following a Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Epidemic
Author(s) -
De Vos Clazien J.,
Nielen Mirjam,
Lopez Emelinda,
Elbers Armin R.W.,
Dekker Aldo
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01327.x
Subject(s) - foot and mouth disease , virology , disease , biology , medicine , outbreak , pathology
Emergency vaccination is an effective control strategy for foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in densely populated livestock areas, but results in a six‐month waiting period before exports can be resumed, incurring severe economic consequences for pig exporting countries. In the European Union, a one‐month waiting period has been discussed based on negative test results in a final screening. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk of exporting FMD‐infected pig carcasses from a vaccinated area: (1) directly after final screening and (2) after a six‐month waiting period. A risk model has been developed to estimate the probability that a processed carcass was derived from an FMD‐infected pig ( P carc ). Key variables were herd prevalence ( P H ), within‐herd prevalence ( P A ), and the probability of detection at slaughter ( P SL ). P H and P A were estimated using Bayesian inference under the assumption that, despite all negative test results, ≥1 infected pigs were present. Model calculations indicated that P carc was on average 2.0 × 10 −5 directly after final screening, and 1.7 × 10 −5 after a six‐month waiting period. Therefore, the additional waiting time did not substantially reduce P carc . The estimated values were worst‐case scenarios because only viraemic pigs pose a risk for disease transmission, while seropositive pigs do not. The risk of exporting FMD via pig carcasses from a vaccinated area can further be reduced by heat treatment of pork and/or by excluding high‐risk pork products from export.