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Threshold Conditions for the Persistence of Plague Transmission in Urban Rats
Author(s) -
Durham David P.,
Casman Elizabeth A.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01309.x
Subject(s) - plague (disease) , yersinia pestis , flea , transmission (telecommunications) , persistence (discontinuity) , biology , population , vulnerability (computing) , geography , ecology , demography , virology , computer security , engineering , computer science , genetics , virulence , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , sociology , gene , electrical engineering
In this article we derive a mathematical expression characterizing the tendency for Yersinia pestis , the etiologic agent of plague, to become established in an urban rat population upon introduction, and evaluate this risk for several cities. The expression gives a threshold condition for the persistence of Y. pestis transmission in terms of measurable attributes of a local urban rat population: the average flea density and the rat colony size. If the local rat and flea populations exceed this threshold, plague circulation is predicted to continue; if not, it will burn out of its own accord. This expression may be used to evaluate both the vulnerability of a specific neighborhood and the effect of pest control strategies upon that vulnerability.