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Bayesian Network for Risk of Diarrhea Associated with the Use of Recycled Water
Author(s) -
Donald Margaret,
Cook Angus,
Mengersen Kerrie
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01301.x
Subject(s) - bayesian network , conceptual model , bayesian probability , expert opinion , water quality , quality (philosophy) , risk assessment , risk analysis (engineering) , bayesian inference , computer science , environmental science , business , machine learning , artificial intelligence , medicine , ecology , philosophy , computer security , epistemology , database , intensive care medicine , biology
Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.