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Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications
Author(s) -
Dillon Robin L.,
Liebe Robert M.,
Bestafka Thomas
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01196.x
Subject(s) - terrorism , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , management science , computer security , engineering , operations research , business , political science , law
This article describes the anti‐terrorism risk‐based decision aid (ARDA), a risk‐based decision‐making approach for prioritizing anti‐terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti‐terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war‐fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.