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Securing Passenger Aircraft from the Threat of Man‐Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS)
Author(s) -
Okpara Uche,
Bier Vicki M.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01133.x
Subject(s) - installation , computer security , sensitivity (control systems) , aeronautics , engineering , function (biology) , computer science , mechanical engineering , electronic engineering , evolutionary biology , biology
In this article, we develop a model for the expected maximum hit probability of an attack on a commercial aircraft using MANPADS, as a function of the (random) location of the attacker. We also explore the sensitivity of the expected maximum hit probability to the parameters of the model, including both attacker parameters (such as weapon characteristics) and defender parameters (such as the size of the secure region around the airport). We conclude that having a large secure region around an airport offers some protection against MANPADS, and that installing onboard countermeasures reduces the success probability of a MANPADS attack.