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Measures of Societal Risk and Their Potential Use in Civil Aviation
Author(s) -
Horn Mark E. T.,
Fulton Neale,
Westcott Mark
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01114.x
Subject(s) - civil aviation , aviation , context (archaeology) , risk analysis (engineering) , conceptual framework , political science , management science , actuarial science , operations research , engineering , sociology , business , social science , paleontology , biology , aerospace engineering
This article seeks to clarify the conceptual foundations of measures of societal risk, to investigate how such measures may be used validly in commonly encountered policy contexts, and to explore the application of these measures in the field of civil aviation. The article begins by examining standard measures of societal and individual risk (SR and IR), with attention given to ethical as well as analytical considerations. A comprehensive technical analysis of SR is provided, encompassing scalar risk measures, barrier functions, and a utility‐based formulation, and clarifications are offered with respect to the treatment of SR in recent publications. The policy context for SR measures is shown to be critically important, and an extension to a hierarchical setting is developed. The prospects for applying SR to civil aviation are then considered, and some technical and conceptual issues are identified. SR appears to be a useful analytical tool in this context, provided that careful attention is given to these issues.