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Expert Judgment‐Based Risk Assessment Using Statistical Scenario Analysis: A Case Study—Running the Bulls in Pamplona (Spain)
Author(s) -
Mallor Fermín,
GarcíaOlaverri Carmen,
GómezElvira Sagrario,
MateoCollazas Pedro
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01098.x
Subject(s) - context (archaeology) , applied psychology , quality (philosophy) , risk assessment , psychology , actuarial science , computer science , computer security , geography , business , philosophy , archaeology , epistemology
In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high‐quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull‐run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of “experts on the bull‐run” represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull‐run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.