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Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty?
Author(s) -
Colyvan Mark
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01058.x
Subject(s) - argument (complex analysis) , probabilistic logic , probability theory , uncertainty quantification , mathematical economics , computer science , econometrics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , statistics , machine learning , biochemistry , chemistry
In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non‐probabilistic uncertainty.