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Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits
Author(s) -
Cooke Roger M.,
MacDonell Margaret
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01042.x
Subject(s) - stylized fact , newsvendor model , probabilistic logic , uncertainty analysis , uncertainty quantification , exposure assessment , computer science , expert elicitation , radiation exposure , risk analysis (engineering) , econometrics , statistics , mathematics , economics , business , machine learning , artificial intelligence , simulation , medicine , supply chain , marketing , macroeconomics , nuclear medicine
Setting action levels or limits for health protection is complicated by uncertainty in the dose‐response relation across a range of hazards and exposures. To address this issue, we consider the classic newsboy problem. The principles used to manage uncertainty for that case are applied to two stylized exposure examples, one for high dose and high dose rate radiation and the other for ammonia. Both incorporate expert judgment on uncertainty quantification in the dose‐response relationship. The mathematical technique of probabilistic inversion also plays a key role. We propose a coupled approach, whereby scientists quantify the dose‐response uncertainty using techniques such as structured expert judgment with performance weights and probabilistic inversion, and stakeholders quantify associated loss rates.