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Rate of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus Transmission by Carriers Quantified from Experimental Data
Author(s) -
Dekker Aldo,
Vernooij Hans,
Bouma Annemarie,
Stegeman Arjan
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01020.x
Subject(s) - foot and mouth disease virus , foot and mouth disease , outbreak , transmission (telecommunications) , virus , confidence interval , infection rate , virology , biology , vaccination , medicine , surgery , telecommunications , computer science
Upon infection with foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV) a considerable number of animals become carriers of the virus. These carriers are considered to be a risk for new outbreaks, but the rate at which these animals can transmit the infection has not been quantified. An analysis was carried out using data from previously published experiments in order to quantify the transmission rate parameter β of FMDV infection from carriers to susceptible animals. The parameter β was estimated at 0.0256 (likelihood‐based confidence interval: 0.008–0.059) infections per carrier per month. Moreover, analysis of published experimental data indicates that the proportion of FMDV carriers decreases at a rate of 0.115 per month. Both parameters obtained from this study are useful for quantitative risk analyses of the trade of animals from FMDV‐infected areas or the lifting of vaccination programs.