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On the Use of Hierarchical Probabilistic Models for Characterizing and Managing Uncertainty in Risk/Safety Assessment
Author(s) -
Kodell Ralph L.,
Chen James J.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00895.x
Subject(s) - benchmark (surveying) , probabilistic logic , risk assessment , computer science , statistics , mathematics , computer security , geodesy , geography
A general probabilistically‐based approach is proposed for both cancer and noncancer risk/safety assessments. The familiar framework of the original ADI/RfD formulation is used, substituting in the numerator a benchmark dose derived from a hierarchical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model and in the denominator a unitary uncertainty factor derived from a hierarchical animal/average human/sensitive human model. The empirical probability distributions of the numerator and denominator can be combined to produce an empirical human‐equivalent distribution for an animal‐derived benchmark dose in external‐exposure units.