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The Costs of Future Polio Risk Management Policies
Author(s) -
Tebbens Radboud J. Duintjer,
Sangrujee Nalinee,
Thompson Kimberly M.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00842.x
Subject(s) - inactivated poliovirus vaccine , context (archaeology) , business , portfolio , poliomyelitis eradication , poliomyelitis , cost–benefit analysis , polio vaccination , vaccination , cost driver , economic cost , immunization , environmental health , public economics , medicine , economics , finance , poliovirus , marketing , paleontology , ecology , virus , neoclassical economics , virology , antigen , immunology , biology
Decisionmakers need information about the anticipated future costs of maintaining polio eradication as a function of the policy options under consideration. Given the large portfolio of options, we reviewed and synthesized the existing cost data relevant to current policies to provide context for future policies. We model the expected future costs of different strategies for continued vaccination, surveillance, and other costs that require significant potential resource commitments. We estimate the costs of different potential policy portfolios for low‐, middle‐, and high‐income countries to demonstrate the variability in these costs. We estimate that a global transition from routine immunization with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) would increase the costs of managing polio globally, although routine IPV use remains less costly than routine OPV use with supplemental immunization activities. The costs of surveillance and a stockpile, while small compared to routine vaccination costs, represent important expenditures to ensure adequate response to potential outbreaks. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses highlight important uncertainty in the aggregated costs and demonstrates that the discount rate and uncertainty in price and administration cost of IPV drives the expected incremental cost of routine IPV vs. OPV immunization.