Premium
A Rational Decision Rule with Extreme Events
Author(s) -
Basili Marcello
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00826.x
Subject(s) - bayes' theorem , expected utility hypothesis , precautionary principle , subjective expected utility , bayesian probability , computer science , econometrics , economics , mathematical economics , risk analysis (engineering) , artificial intelligence , business , ecology , biology
Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes‐Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.