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Forecasting Spanish Natural Life Expectancy
Author(s) -
Guillen Montserrat,
VidiellaiAnguera Antoni
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00671.x
Subject(s) - life expectancy , accidental , mortality rate , demography , natural (archaeology) , gerontology , econometrics , actuarial science , geography , economics , medicine , sociology , population , physics , archaeology , acoustics
Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long‐term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age‐gender‐specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log‐bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975–1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality‐gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.