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Expert Informants and Relative Risk: A Methodology for Modeling Waterways 1
Author(s) -
Gramling Robert,
Forsyth Craig J.,
Wooddell George
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00369.x
Subject(s) - relative risk , baton rouge , port (circuit theory) , mile , risk assessment , scale (ratio) , environmental science , geography , statistics , computer science , engineering , cartography , mathematics , confidence interval , history , fin de siecle , computer security , art history , geodesy , electrical engineering
This project describes a methodology for assessing relative risk along a transportation corridor utilizing waterborne transportation on the busiest port area in the world, the lower Mississippi River (from the mouth of Southwest Pass up through Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The paper calculates a relative risk scale, using data obtained from maritime experts, previous research, and existing databases. The research aggregates the vessel traffic data and geographic risk location data to produce relative risk scores for each mile along the River from the mouth of Southwest Pass to the termination of shipping at the U.S. 190 bridge across the River at Baton Rouge. This is done in a very simple and practical way for this initial model: (1) each vessel traveling the Mississippi is classified according to its risk potential for those miles that it passes in route to where it docks, and (2) points along the river are assigned a relative risk score based upon risk variables identified by expérts identified through a standard sampling procedure. The relative risk scores for river miles are combinations of these two factors.