Premium
Cybernetic Risk Analysis
Author(s) -
Foster Kevin J.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00860.x
Subject(s) - cybernetics , surprise , risk analysis (engineering) , pearl , risk management , computer science , operations research , engineering , business , artificial intelligence , psychology , economics , management , geography , social psychology , archaeology
The Pearl Harbor case study reveals that risk analysis failure may be caused by any of a number of factors. However, the most important variables are system load, gain, lead time, and lag time. The dynamics of such cybernetic systems analysis constitute an important aspect in this regard. Four different risk management strategies, or organization designs, have been proposed in this paper. Each has a unique combination of the imputed variables and each has a unique cause of surprise, risk analysis failure, and crisis.