Premium
Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis
Author(s) -
Chao Hungpo
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00094.x
Subject(s) - climate change , greenhouse gas , global warming , climate commitment , runaway climate change , ecological forecasting , climate model , environmental science , political economy of climate change , transient climate simulation , natural resource economics , environmental resource management , climatology , economics , effects of global warming , ecology , biology , geology
Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy. In this model, the timing and severity of climate catastrophe are treated probabilistically. The impacts of key uncertainties on optimal policy are analyzed, and the expected values of additional information that reduces the uncertainty associated with the world economy, carbon cycle, climate change, and climate damage are estimated.