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Risk Decision Making in Operational Safety Management– Experience from the Nordic Benchmark Study
Author(s) -
Holmberg Jan,
Pulkkinen Urho,
Pörn Kurt,
Shen Kecheng
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00067.x
Subject(s) - benchmark (surveying) , context (archaeology) , probabilistic logic , risk analysis (engineering) , operations research , event (particle physics) , risk assessment , risk management , accident (philosophy) , decision support system , decision analysis , engineering , computer science , business , data mining , artificial intelligence , computer security , mathematics , statistics , paleontology , philosophy , physics , geodesy , finance , epistemology , quantum mechanics , biology , geography
Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and Studsvik AB, Sweden, have simulated decision making of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and a power company by applying decision models in a benchmark study. Based on the experience from the benchmark study, a decision analysis framework to be used in safety related problems is outlined. By this framework both the power companies and the safety authorities could be provided with a more rigorous, systematic approach in their decision making. A decision analytic approach provides a structure for identifying the information requirements of the problem solving. Thus it could serve as a discussion forum between the authorities and the utilities. In this context, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has a crucial role of expressing the plant safety status in terms of reactor core damage accident probability and of risk contributions from various accident precursors. However, a decision under uncertainty should not be based solely on probabilities, particularly when the event in question is a rare one and its probability of occurrence is estimated by means of different kinds of approximations.