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Predicting Loss of Life in Cases of Dam Failure and Flash Flood
Author(s) -
DeKay Michael L.,
McClelland Gary H.
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01069.x
Subject(s) - flash flood , flood myth , flooding (psychology) , logistic regression , population , forensic engineering , environmental science , warning system , dam failure , risk analysis (engineering) , geography , engineering , statistics , environmental health , mathematics , medicine , psychology , archaeology , aerospace engineering , psychotherapist
This paper improves upon previous attempts to predict loss of life (LOL) from severe flooding events. An expression for LOL in terms of warning time (WT), the size of the population at risk (PAR), and the forcefulness of the flood waters (Force) is derived from the historical record of dam failures and flash flood cases via logistic regression. There is no evidence for an effect of prior flooding experience or an interaction between WT and PAR, as has been suggested elsewhere. Guidelines are suggested for the proper use of the final equations and the findings are discussed in relation to a theoretical model of flood fatalities.