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Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: III. Modeling the Relative Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Author(s) -
Hoseyni Mohammad S.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01315.x
Subject(s) - aflatoxin , relative risk , poisson regression , liver cancer , hepatocellular carcinoma , population , medicine , hepatitis b virus , attributable risk , demography , confidence interval , toxicology , environmental health , biology , immunology , microbiology and biotechnology , virus , sociology
Estimates have been made of the cancer potency of aflatoxin exposure among the U.S. population. Risk modeling is used to assess the dose‐response relationship between aflatoxin exposure and primary liver cancer, controlling for hepatitis B virus (HBV), based on data provided by the Yeh et al. study in China. (1) A relative risk model is proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the additive (“absolute” risk) model for transportation of risk coefficients between populations with different baseline rates. Several general relative risk models were examined; the exponential model provided the best fit. The Poisson regression method was used to fit the relative risk model to the grouped data. The effects of exposure to aflatoxin (AFB 1 ) and hepatitis B infection were both found to be statistically significant. The risk of death from liver cancer for those exposed to AFB 1 relative to the unexposed population, increases by 0.05% per ng/kg/day exposure of AFB 1 ( p <0.001). The results also indicated a 25‐fold increase in the risk of death from liver cancer among those infected with hepatitis B virus, relative to noncarriers ( p <0.0001). With a hepatitis prevalence rate of 1%, the aflatoxin intake level associated with liver cancer lifetime excess risk of 1 × 10 −5 for the U.S. population was estimated as 253 ng/day, based on a liver cancer baseline rate of 3.4 /100,000/yr.