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Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin B 1 : A Modeling Approach
Author(s) -
WuWilliams Anna H.,
Zeise Lauren,
Thomas Duncan
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb00712.x
Subject(s) - aflatoxin , multiplicative function , hepatitis b virus , potency , relative risk , hepatocellular carcinoma , statistics , population , mathematics , toxicology , hepatitis b , environmental health , demography , virology , medicine , confidence interval , biology , microbiology and biotechnology , virus , in vitro , genetics , mathematical analysis , sociology
The data generated by Yeh et al. on hepatitis B virus, aflatoxin, and primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC)in Southern Guangxi, China was used to evaluate the cancer potency of aflatoxin. We examined model fits to these data to explore whether hepatitis B virus (HBV)and aflatoxin intake act together to affect PHC rates in an additive, multiplicative, or interactive fashion, using relative and excess risk model forms. Purely additive models fit the data poorly. Fitted models were checked for plausibility by comparing predictions for the U.S. population with actual PHC incidence rates in the United States, and parameter stability was evaluated. The multiplicative relative risk and the interactive excess risk models provided satisfactory descriptions of the Yeh et al. data and U.S. PHC rates. There is about an eight‐fold difference in the potency estimate for aflatoxin under the multiplicative relative risk (5.7 (mg/kg‐day) ‐1 )and interactive excess risk models (45.6 mg/kg‐day) ‐1 ). The assumptions and limitations of the various models are discussed.