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Knowledge‐Based Representations of Risk Beliefs
Author(s) -
Tonn Bruce E.,
Travis Cheryl B.,
Goeltz Richard T.,
Phillippi Raymond H.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01031.x
Subject(s) - computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , knowledge management , psychology , business
Beliefs about risks associated with two risk agents, AIDS and toxic waste, are modeled using knowledge‐based methods and elicited from subjects via interactive computer technology. A concept net is developed to organize subject responses concerning the consequences of the risk agents. It is found that death and adverse personal emotional and sociological consequences are most associated with AIDS. Toxic waste is most associated with environmental problems. These consequence profiles are quite dissimilar, although past work in risk perception would have judged the risk agents as being quite similar. Subjects frequently used causal semantics to represent their beliefs and “% of time” instead of “probability” to represent likelihoods. The news media is the most prevalent source of risk information although experiences of acquaintances appear more credible. The results suggest that “broadly based risk” communication may be ineffective because people differ in their conceptual representation of risk beliefs. In general, the knowledge‐based approach to risk perception representation has great potential to increase our understanding of important risk topics.