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The Fallacy of Ranking Possible Carcinogen Hazards Using the TD 50
Author(s) -
Wartenberg Daniel,
Gallo Michael A.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb00546.x
Subject(s) - fallacy , ranking (information retrieval) , computer science , epistemology , philosophy , artificial intelligence
Ames et al. have proposed a new model for evaluating carcinogenic hazards in the environment. They advocate ranking possible carcinogens on the basis of the TD 50 , the estimated dose at which 50% of the test animals would get tumors, and extrapolating that ranking to all other doses. We argue that implicit in this methodology is a simplistic and inappropriate statistical model. All carcinogens are assumed to act similarly and to have dose‐response curves of the same shape that differ only in the value of one parameter. We show by counterexample that the rank order of cancer potencies for two chemicals can change over a reasonable range of doses. Ames et al.'s use of these TD 50 ranks to compare the hazards from low level exposures to contaminants in our food and environment is wholly inappropriate and inaccurate. Their dismissal of public health concern for environmental exposures, in general, based on these comparisons, is not supported by the data.