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How Do Cancer Risks Predicted From Animal Bioassays Compare with the Epidemiologic Evidence? The Case of Ethylene Dibromide
Author(s) -
HertzPicciotto Irva,
Gravitz Norman,
Neutra Raymond
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1988.tb01173.x
Subject(s) - bioassay , toxicology , medicine , environmental health , animal model , cancer , extrapolation , statistics , econometrics , demography , biology , mathematics , genetics , sociology
Cancer risks for ethylene dibromide (EDB) were estimated by fitting several linear non‐threshold additive models to data from a gavage bioassay. Risks predicted by these models were compared to the observed cancer mortality among a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to the same chemical. Models that accounted for the shortened latency period in the gavaged rats predicted upper bound risks that were within a factor of 3 of the observed cancer deaths. Data from an animal inhalation study of EDB also were compatible with the epidemiologic data. These findings contradict those of Ramsey et al. (1978), who reported that extrapolation from animal data produced highly exaggerated risk estimates for EDB‐exposed workers. This paper explores the reasons for these discrepant findings.