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Projections of Cancer Risks Attributable to Future Exposure to Asbestos
Author(s) -
Mauskopf Josephine A.
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00484.x
Subject(s) - asbestos , environmental health , risk assessment , government (linguistics) , product (mathematics) , medicine , occupational exposure , forensic engineering , engineering , mathematics , computer science , computer security , linguistics , philosophy , materials science , geometry , metallurgy
To assess the maximum possible impact of further government regulation of asbestos exposure, projections were made of the use of asbestos in nine product categories for the years 1985–2000. A life table risk assessment model was then developed to estimate the excess cases of cancer and lost person‐years of life likely to occur among those occupationally and nonoccupationally exposed to the nine asbestos product categories manufactured in 1985–2000. These estimates were made under the assumption that government regulation remains at its 1985 level. Use of asbestos in the nine product categories was predicted to decline in all cases except for friction products. The risk assessment results show that, although the cancer risks from future exposure to asbestos are significantly less than those from past exposures, in the absence of more stringent regulations, a health risk remains.