Premium
Warning Systems in Risk Management
Author(s) -
PatéCornell M. Elisabeth
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00210.x
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , sensitivity (control systems) , computer science , warning system , risk analysis (engineering) , risk management , reliability engineering , engineering , artificial intelligence , business , telecommunications , finance , electronic engineering
A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost‐effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment (1) of the signals, and (2) of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade‐off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long‐term effects of “crying wolf” and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.