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Health Risks and Air Pollution — Error Analysis for a Cross‐Sectional Mortality Study
Author(s) -
Pickles J. H.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00208.x
Subject(s) - robustness (evolution) , statistics , regression analysis , air pollution , regression , range (aeronautics) , environmental science , econometrics , environmental health , pollution , geography , mathematics , medicine , engineering , biochemistry , chemistry , organic chemistry , gene , aerospace engineering , ecology , biology
An attempt is made to analyze in quantitative terms the uncertainties in multiple regression estimates of the effects of air pollution on death rates. A range of factors—statistical fluctuations in numbers of deaths, differences in local age distribution, differences in smoking habits, errors in estimated pollution levels, migration, and variability of the characterization of socioeconomic effects—are assessed as potential sources of error. Both the precision and the robustness of the regression calculation are shown to be poor. Examples and illustrative calculations are given based on a study of U. K. death rates around the 1971 Census.