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Nuclear Plant PRA: How Far Has It Come?
Author(s) -
Levine S.,
Rasmussen N. C.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00944.x
Subject(s) - probabilistic risk assessment , judgement , engineering , task (project management) , nuclear power , nuclear power plant , risk analysis (engineering) , forensic engineering , risk assessment , computer science , political science , business , computer security , systems engineering , physics , law , nuclear physics
Nearly ten years have passed since the publication in August 1974 of the draft Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400), the first detailed attempt to apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to estimate the public risks posed by commercial nuclear power plants. Now is an opportune time to look back and see how PRA has fared over these ten years. We will not attempt to pass judgement on how the Reactor Safety Study report itself has withstood the test of time, as that task is best left to others less directly involved in preparing the report. Instead, we will examine advances in the understanding, acceptance, and utilization of PRA techniques, as well as technical advances in PRA methods. Some of the significant insights gained from PRAs will be discussed. Finally, some observations on the future of PRA will be offered.