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Probabilistic Models for Risk Assessment
Author(s) -
Fiksel Joseph,
Rosenfield Donald B.
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01397.x
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , risk assessment , probabilistic risk assessment , risk analysis (engineering) , risk management , engineering , process (computing) , computer science , reliability engineering , forensic engineering , business , computer security , artificial intelligence , finance , operating system
Recent concern with the potential for stray carbon fibers to damage electronic equipment and cause economic losses has led to the development of advanced risk‐assessment methods. Risk assessment often requires the synthesis of risk profiles which represent the probability distribution of total annual losses due to a certain set of events or activities. A number of alternative probabilistic models are presented which the authors have used to develop such profiles. Examples are given of applications of these methods to assessment of risk due to conductive fibers released from aircraft or automobile fires. These assessments usually involve a two‐stage approach: estimation of losses for several subclassifications of the overall process, and synthesis of the results into an aggregate risk profile. The methodology presented is capable of treating a wide variety of situations involving sequences of random physical events.