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On The Method of Discrete Probability Distributions in Risk and Reliability Calculations–Application to Seismic Risk Assessment
Author(s) -
Kaplan Stanley
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01415.x
Subject(s) - reliability (semiconductor) , probability distribution , discretization , probabilistic logic , mathematics , truncation (statistics) , risk assessment , uncertainty quantification , point (geometry) , computer science , statistics , power (physics) , mathematical analysis , physics , geometry , computer security , quantum mechanics
If the point of view is adopted that in calculations of real‐world phenomena we almost invariably have significant uncertainty in the numerical values of our parameters, then, in these calculations, numerical quantities should be replaced by probability distributions and mathematical operations between these quantities should be replaced by analogous operations between probability distributions. Also, practical calculations one way or another always require discretization or truncation. Combining these two thoughts leads to a numerical approach to probabilistic calculations having great simplicity, power, and elegance. The philosophy and technique of this approach is described, some pitfalls are pointed out, and an application to seismic risk assessment is outlined.