Premium
Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large‐Scale Regional Econometric Model
Author(s) -
Giarratani Frank,
Houston David B.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
geographical analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1538-4632
pISSN - 0016-7363
DOI - 10.1111/j.1538-4632.1992.tb00265.x
Subject(s) - econometric model , scale (ratio) , term (time) , economics , perspective (graphical) , econometrics , key (lock) , economic forecasting , computer science , geography , artificial intelligence , physics , cartography , computer security , quantum mechanics
Long‐term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well‐structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long‐term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long‐term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large‐scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long‐term regional forecasts.